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As COVID-19 hospitalizations continued to fall in Quebec – on Sunday there were 2,895, fewer than reported by the Ministry of Health in more than two weeks – and the 11 deaths attributed to the virus represented the lowest number of deaths since January 1, restaurant dining rooms were due to reopen half-full on Monday, and private gatherings and youth sports were permitted again for the first time in 2022.

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Private gatherings are permitted with up to four people or two households, whichever is greater. Indoor restaurant tables have the same limits.

Dr. Brian Ward, an infectious disease specialist and professor at the Research Institute of the McGill University Health Center, said Sunday he agreed with public health decisions to reopen.

“I think we’re at the beginning of the stage of learning to live with SARS-CoV-2, instead of trying to rule it out, and I think it’s important to understand that,” said- he declared. “What is troubling is the fairly high number of people over the age of 60 who are hospitalized and end up in intensive care despite two or three doses of the vaccine.

One of the reasons why there aren’t ‘large numbers’ of people in intensive care is that ‘as a society we are pretty well protected by vaccines – but that also means that when someone ends up going to the hospital, it’s usually someone who is vaccinated”.

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And although the Omicron variant is less severe than previously detected variants of the virus, “it can still put you in intensive care.”

“For me, the real message is that it’s way too early to start thinking about letting your guard down,” he said. “There is no room for complacency, especially for those over 60 or 65 and those with comorbid conditions.”

Comorbid conditions include taking chemotherapy or an inborn error of the immune system.

Most people don’t realize how contagious the Omicron variant is, Ward said. “Right now it’s pretty hard to avoid exposure to Omicron – unless you live in a bubble.”

Immunity comes from being vaccinated or exposure to a natural disease,” and there is very good scientific evidence that the immunity you have if you have been vaccinated and exposure to natural diseases is stimulated,” he said.

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An important characteristic of a virus is its reproduction number – the number of people an infected person, on average, will infect. The 2002-2004 SARS-CoV-1 outbreak “was a nasty virus,” but its reproduction number was relatively low, Ward said. “We basically defeated CoV-1 through quarantine and travel restrictions.”

But SARS-CoV-2, which caused the pandemic declared in March 2020, “is a very different beast,” he said. “Many cases were transmitted by asymptomatic individuals.”

The reproduction number of the CoV-2 virus first detected in the Chinese city of Wuhan was 3 to 5; it was 8 to 10 for the Delta variant and for the Omicron variant it is 20.

“With a reproduction number as high as 20, it’s kind of inconceivable that virtually everyone isn’t exposed if they’re on the move.”

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The vast majority of people exposed to Omicron don’t get that sick or get sick at all, Ward said. But even with personal protection and wearing a mask, “it is still very likely that the vast majority of Quebecers will have been exposed to Omicron by spring.

“And when that happens, what many of us hope is that Omicron is the strain that takes us from the pandemic phase of SARS to the endemic phase, where everyone has some level of protection. because he has been vaccinated or has been exposed. And it’s called herd immunity.

Will it be time then to give the answer to the joyful music?

“It could be – unless this virus has the ability to mutate in a way that prevents all of this immunity that we have generated through vaccination and natural exposure from being effective. It’s theoretically possible,” Ward said.

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The full genetic flexibility of the virus is not yet known, he said.

“That’s the caveat on my optimistic crystal ball,” Ward said. “If the spike protein of the virus (which is how the virus enters our cells) has the ability to mutate in a way that makes it invisible to vaccine-generated immunity – and I really don’t think that if so – then we will have another wave.

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