Reproduction rate of NSW COVID cases must decrease: Kerry Chant
His data showed the R eff was 1.2 on Tuesday, down from 1.5 on the weekend.
According to data from Professor Esterman, the R eff in NSW peaked at 7.5 on June 26, the day Greater Sydney went into lockdown. This was around the time that the Bondi Junction Westfield cluster spread to a birthday party in West Hoxton.
“At the start of an epidemic, you always see a huge, steep increase in cases that causes a very high R eff that eventually sets in,” Professor Esterman said.
The graph above shows that NSW’s R eff has not fallen below 1 since the start of the epidemic.
“Until that happens, cases will continue to grow exponentially,” Professor Esterman said.
Current vaccination rates in NSW are higher than those seen in the US and UK when they peaked earlier this year, although a Herald analysis suggests that NSW is by no means plowing doses at a global rate.
The graph below compares the number of days it took jurisdictions with 21% vaccination coverage for the first injection in their population – when data was first released for NSW – to reach 47%, where NSW is today. NSW achieved the feat in 52 days, although around 20 countries achieved it faster.
That translates to around 60% of the state’s population aged 16 and over, as the Prime Minister mentioned in Monday morning’s press conference.
However, the state has certainly surpassed its own target of 6 million shots by the end of August, reporting a total number of 6,019,355 doses administered at state centers, general medicine clinics, and medical centers. other providers at 8 p.m. Monday.
The graph below shows how the vaccination rate in NSW started to increase dramatically around the week starting August 9 to hit the 6 million per week target ahead of schedule.
Interestingly, it was the previous weekend that the state government introduced vaccination requirements for construction workers in areas of local government concern in southern and western Sydney.
With subsequent announcements of immunization mandates for childcare workers in areas of concern to local communities and state health workers, immunization rates have increased dramatically over the past fifteen weeks, particularly in areas of concern. local communities.
Data released by the federal government on Monday showed that the western and southwestern regions of Sydney have the fastest growing immunization coverage rates in the country.
In Blacktown, 64.8% of people aged 15 and over have now received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, up 11.2 percentage points in a week.
Parramatta came in second with just over 58 percent coverage from the first dose after registering 47.7 percent coverage the previous Monday.
NSW had eight of the top 10 regions for at least the first dose of nationwide immunization coverage. However, parts of the north and west of the state, from Hunter Valley to New England, have rates nearly 20% lower than parts of Sydney for first shots.